Ah, the end of another year is coming and bringing the Christmas present that you’re sure to get back to the store asap – Legal Sports Report’s sports betting predictions for 2021
The LSR employees answered five randomly selected questions about the next 12 months in the industry.
Bookmark this page and check back next December to see how wrong we were!
1) What’s the biggest unanswered question about US sports betting as we enter 2021?
Adam Candee: Without question it is the future of Wire Act. Under the Trump card Administration, the guiding hand of a certain deeply pocketed casino owner nudged them US Ministry of Justice threaten wider and stronger enforcement that could have kneeled the sports betting market. This particular influence disappears under President-elect Joe Biden.
Will a Biden DOJ remove the uncertainty created by that saber rattle? Could it go further and push for an end to the outdated restrictions on intergovernmental engagement? Stay tuned.
Brad Allen: Will the advent of Joe Biden mean the end of the Wire Act? Biden is known to not support last year’s Justice Department decision to reinterpret the Wire Act. Does that also mean he might consider abolishing the Wire Act entirely?
You would think so BUT would push hard in Washington, and it could pave the way for a nationwide sports betting exchange. Sharps are happy everywhere!
Dustin Gouker: When will one of the four largest states legalize sports betting? Many states have apparently legalized in recent years, but only from the four largest in terms of population new York has any type of betting with a small retail presence of sports betting.
The rumors of legalization in New York got around like every year, but will they actually achieve anything this time around? California Maybe you’re looking at a serious effort … in 2022. Texas is also the subject of speculation, but its legislature only meets for a short period every two years, this time in 2021. And Florida seems a way out. There are no online sports bets in four states that are home to more than 100 million people. Will that change in 2021?
Matthew Waters: How did New York go for another year without mobile betting? It is not for lack of effort. Sen. Joe Addabbo and Rep. Gary Pretlow I’ve tried legalizing mobile betting for years but come across a roadblock in one or more locations every year. New York loses millions in tax revenue as weather continues to travel to New York New Jersey.
2) By the end of 2021, _______ will have a third market share in the US.
AC:: Bar stool sports betting, although it may not apply beyond 2021. How fast can Penn Interactive Now scale across the country after early success Pennsylvania? Barstool continues to pose a existential threat to itself and the industry with regulators and lawmakers through its carefree marketing approach, but the suppleness of its audience is second to none.
BetMGM will burn piles of ad money to take this spot and can use their league partnerships for higher engagement as well. I have to see BetMGM Succeed before handing crowns over to the self-proclaimed “King of Sports Betting”.
BA:: BetMGM. They’re probably already there, despite some of the product issues they initially had. In a way, they are FanDuel-lite by combining the knowledge and technology of a European gambling company with some US know-how and presence. They also spend a billion dollars.
DG:: BetMGM. They spend so much on marketing that it feels like they can. I think Barstool will have a chance because of its performance in Pennsylvania, but I need to see they do so in more than one state (and start in every other state) before I get into that limb.
MW:: BetMGM is expected to be in third place by the end of 2021. This assumes that Barstool Sportsbook continues its leisurely rollout in other constitutional states. BetMGM has the money and the mindset to spend whatever it takes to stay relevant with the top operators in the US.
3) How many states will legalize sports betting in 2021 and which is the most likely?
AC:: five seems the most likely number. Let me use the words to prepare for the cold Ohio, Connecticut, and Massachusetts are on track to legalize next year. The push-in Missouri also has legs. And you can always count on a state that you never saw coming (Georgia Maybe?) Let’s double my bad calls by making Ohio a favorite.
BA: We seem to be doing about five or six new states a year but are starting to get to a point where the states that have not yet been legalized have a reason not to. That’s why my proprietary legalization algorithm says 4.2 New states will go online in 2021. Massachusetts and Connecticut look like slam dunks to create one New England Betting center.
DG: I put the line on 3.5and I’d probably end up betting just because I’m always amazed at how quickly sports betting has expanded. Easy wins are harder to find, however, as the number of states without sports betting decreases.
But there are enough states that have already looked at the issue or are looking for new forms of income that we can easily legalize a handful of states. I will most likely go with Massachusetts; DraftKings and MGM should make it to the finish line I guess.
MW: Of the 22 states that no longer have sports betting, it is reasonable to assume sixor just over 25%will legalize this year. Most likely at this point in time is Massachusetts, which is under great pressure to legalize with Rhode Island and New Hampshire on either side Boston.
Nebraska could be a dark horse to legalize as casinos just got legalized in this past election.
4) What will be the largest monthly handle for a US state in 2021? Which state will do it?
AC: As a native New YorkerIt’s sweet to see how we let go New Jersey Be the best at something. As someone who covers the industry, it’s confusing to see my home state continuing to keep its money flowing through the industry Hudson.
The Garden state will continue to benefit from New York’s stubbornness by a $ 1.3 billion Month in january. Next month will be four weeks NFL Games and early Super bowl Bets plus that College Football Playoffs, NBA, NHLand college basketball. The road to New Jersey and Pennsylvania routinely takes more than $ 2 billion per month in betting easily during the 2021 football season charts.
BA: Let’s take a swing and say Pennsylvania takes the top spot and scores $ 1.1 billion. It’s about 30% but obviously a much younger market behind NJ at the moment, with one 40% larger population.
In fact, the difference between the two is likely the New Yorkers who cross the border to place their bets in New Jersey. And maybe – just maybe – 2021 is the year New York goes wise and starts allowing these bets in the state.
DG: I think New Jersey will keep the title of most sports betting each month. I think we can do it $ 1.2 billion in one of the football months in 2021. There’s an opportunity we’re seeing Illinois However, take the cloak with its rapid growth and larger population.
MW: New Jersey will take on the largest monthly hold for a state at next year $ 1.1 billion in the fall – as long as New York doesn’t implement mobile sports betting first. There is no other state that has outside influence like New York over New Jersey. The Garden state is prepared to stay in the US sports betting market for as long Governor Andrew Cuomo Leaves mobile betting on the shelf for New Yorkers.
5) What’s your most outrageous US sports betting prediction in 2021?
AC:: ESPN begins his entry into sports betting as an operator. You wanted to be rude, didn’t you?
The House of the mouse is the 800 pound gorilla in the industry and cannot maximize sports betting profits with its current approach. And ESPN is running out of money, laying off hundreds of employees last year to prepare for new TV rights offerings.
Disney moves carefully and tests the water with its current approach. Next year it will be too early to give up the contracts just signed with William Hill and Caesars, but the groundwork for the real jump will begin.
(My slightly outrageous bonus prediction is that Nevada will drop out of the top 3 states behind New Jersey, Illinois, and Pennsylvania as the U.S. trip up to Covid-19 vaccination is widespread.)
BA: We see a big financial institution getting into sports betting somehow. There is a clear transition between the two sectors. Check out the army of Robin Hood Day traders who emerged when there was no sport.
Interactive brokers has dealt with a free sports retail product in the past and Nasdaq offers technology to sports betting exchanges around the world, so it would be no surprise if a financial firm were fully into sports betting.
DG: There is a major sports betting scandal in the US that is attracting mainstream attention. That may seem too broad, but we’ve had almost three years scandal free.
I won’t go any further by saying what kind of scandal we’re going to have – only that it’s hard to believe that such a moment has not yet hit the industry, given the rapid growth in sports betting in the US.
MW: Four states will surpass $ 5 billion New Jersey, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Illinois either have the population or the assistance of other jurisdictions to get them there.
New Jersey is well on the way to topping that mark this year while Nevada is not far behind. Pennsylvania is still a growing market, especially after that Coronavirus The pandemic had an impact on the ramp-up phase, and Illinois is showing promising growth in its first few months.